Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gui Cohen

2nd • 11-2-0

92%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gary Manttan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Teck Yeow Wong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Vincent Lim (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.34
R8	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.24
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.58
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R12	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.78
R13	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andrew Cook

5th • 8-3-0

73%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jo Yana (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.96
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Masaaki Yamanobe

16th • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.9

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Frederick Governale (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.06
R10	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Tim Dasiukevich

29th • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Martin (Unknown)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Mercado (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Lind (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.04
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

William Bradshaw

64th • 6-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Tang (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 政大板谷 (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carlo Ople (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Zdeněk Matura (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Jason Rolfe

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs つばさ穐山 (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jared Blazich (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bernie L (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.97
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

David Brannen

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

ZongRu Wu

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs つばさ穐山 (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 聡本田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jian Botor

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kai Pickett (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Matt Quigley

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sherry Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Teck Yeow Wong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rohan Raj

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Amirruddin Sheik (Florian) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chuan Yang Loy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Akira NAKAJIMA (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mikko Salmi (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.