Vynnset at Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026

Vynnset

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

May Hayden

36th • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Armand Miguel Medina (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.84
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Darius Zacharakis

84th • 5-5-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Hoffmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 聡本田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Rabchenia (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R9	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

政大板谷

87th • 5-5-0

70%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.96
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.03
R10	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Thomas

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ernesto Manzur (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Brian Lu-Trinh

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sherry Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.