Florian at Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026

Florian

36 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Muhidin Grosonja

38th • 7-3-0

60%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nick McGrath (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs zion moore (Kano) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Russell Howse (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.88	1.23
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.50
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Logan King

49th • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steven Christian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs May Hayden (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.43
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Johnny Zen

56th • 6-4-0

30%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Erika Andersen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R9	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Takumi Watanabe

57th • 6-4-0

40%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Natalie Hathaway (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.43
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.06
R10	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Pauli Viimaranta

60th • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chuan Yang Loy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.43
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

ゆうひ石丸

73rd • 6-4-0

40%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.83
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Pat Eshghy

76th • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Crisler Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yoshida Yoshinobu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.72
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho

91st • 5-5-0

30%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mizuki Tamura (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs シンヤカワグチ (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.89

John Hathaway

101st • 4-6-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 梶田和満 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cody Dennhardt (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 暁柴野 (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.57
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.93
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

荻原雄生

108th • 2-6-2

70%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Van Den Broek (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Cheng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chou Wen Hung (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tanaka (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Draw vs 暁柴野 (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Uzuri	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

暁柴野

109th • 2-7-1

60%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Byrnes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Henry Van Den Broek (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs John Hathaway (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Draw vs 荻原雄生 (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.32
R9	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Barrett Goss

dropped • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eon Lovelace (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Matteo Blasi

dropped • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs gabriel ebady (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.88	2.32
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Giovanni Prinzivalli

dropped • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dev Gordon (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 聡本田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Teck Yeow Wong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.51
R6	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kazuaki Fukui

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Zaballero (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Eon Lovelace

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.63
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Anthony Dang

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Janina Maricle (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sam Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Russell Howse (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Chua

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gary Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Lucas Tenorio

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.14
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

ChingHeng Lin

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Masaya Sasaki

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Teo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 荒金優太 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael Feng

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eon Lovelace (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zachary Johnson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Keito Onose (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Akihiro Takano

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs KENT Lin (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 梶田和満 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Amirruddin Sheik

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rohan Raj (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.52
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Justin Gottlieb

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Klein Tian (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Konoka Takai

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chuan Yang Loy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Seiichi Yasuda

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Trevor Valentine

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs KENT Lin (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs WAI KIT LO (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Akira NAKAJIMA

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Max McLean (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Nisthal (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rohan Raj (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Abdurrahman Putra

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Tang (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daniel Nisthal

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Akira NAKAJIMA (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tigran Grigorian

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Travis Wong

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs シンヤカワグチ (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.63
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nathanael Hunt

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

TCGTed Grabow

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samed Demir (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.