Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Terra (SAGE)

Terra

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yu fan Liao

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cheng Chun-You (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Kayo) - Expected: 77:23

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chen Wei Li (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matt Quigley (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Kayo) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.33
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Clark

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs シンヤカワグチ (Kayo) - Expected: 77:23

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Lewis

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.