Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kazuki Itabashi

13th • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Bültel (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Dela Torre (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Taylor Reichel

89th • 5-5-0

90%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Henrique Pereira (Unknown)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Naoki Endo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zdeněk Matura (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs 政大板谷 (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Tomotsugu Kikuta

90th • 5-5-0

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Janina Maricle (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jason Dela Torre (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Yoshida Yoshinobu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

Hiroshi Noguchi

107th • 3-7-0

90%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

5.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Hathaway (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tanaka (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs 荻原雄生 (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Yoshida Yoshinobu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

80:20

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R9	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R10	Silver Age	Viserai	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Cheng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Lucas Dutailly

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Feng (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

CYK Lionel

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Taotao Chu (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael Zaballero

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ernesto Manzur (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven Christian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jo Yana (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Eugene Guevarra

dropped • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs gabriel ebady (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Blazich (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carlo Ople

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Crisler Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Enes Findik

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Mizuki Tamura

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jared Blazich

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oh Oh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jimmy Nguyen

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.65
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

TSUNAKI SAWAI

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sam Yuen

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eon Lovelace (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Dang (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Majin Bae

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hiroyuki Tanaka (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Masayuki Hori

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kazuya Nakata (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Naoki Endo

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 秀太栗原 (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Blaž Hrastnik

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hiroyuki Tanaka (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bernie L (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Maya Yagura

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 秀太栗原 (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mercy Bickell

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 政大板谷 (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Suh Jaeyong

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dev Gordon (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Yukitaka Inohara

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Tang (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Sinho Seol

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Henrique Gouvêa (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chen Wei Li (Rhinar) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

gabriel ebady

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.