Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Riptide (SAGE)

Riptide

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kazuhiro Watanabe

72nd • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 0:100

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shuya Watanabe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Richard Fu (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs 政大板谷 (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Masaki Kinoshita

78th • 5-5-0

70%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 岡本一朗 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ken Sawada

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 9:91

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-

Tom Hartley

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Henrique Pereira (Unknown)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

0:100

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

EIKI SUGAI

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.