Valda Brightaxe at Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026

Valda Brightaxe

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

3rd • 10-2-0

25%

Meta

+5.1

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Tenorio (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jared Blazich (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Russell Howse (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

25% (3/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.81
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.03
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.10
R12	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Jacob Trossing

15th • 8-2-0

40%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Darnell Dickerson (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Evan Tanguy

26th • 7-3-0

30%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.0

Surp

5.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chen Wei Li (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	1.45
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.44
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.87
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.65
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Esmond Heng

41st • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Max McLean (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.29
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Alexis VALENTIN

58th • 6-4-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alan Teixeira (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Tim Sofsky

75th • 6-4-0

40%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Roman Legíň (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Samed Demir (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R10	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tomoko Ishimaru

106th • 3-7-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lauren Zacharakis (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kairi Thompson (Dash) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Samed Demir (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs John Hathaway (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Muhammad Harraz Mohd Aris (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.96
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Arthur Trehet

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brian Lu-Trinh (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Justin Cu

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josue Murillo Leon (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jie Rui C (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Carlo Ople (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

ChangSheng Sze Tho

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul Johnson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cody Dennhardt (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs shutatsu sato (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

John Milner

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Klein Tian (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jun Loong Wong (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Ricardo Rua

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mauro Annetta (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Andrei Sebastian Suciu

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Travis Barton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Sam Cornelis

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Kaori Ohara

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 直樹多川 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Muhammad Harraz Mohd Aris (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Masaya Sasaki (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Konoka Takai (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Sarah Cheng

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 荻原雄生 (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

祐也副島

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Christian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Hauser (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Emmanuel Rojas

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Evanking Chiu

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Francesco Giorgio

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Mason Galvan

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Paul Johnson

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shane Johnstone

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Klein Tian (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.