Kayo at Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026

Kayo

55 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Benjamin Westmore

14th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Majin Bae (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Matthew Duggan

35th • 7-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs つばさ穐山 (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 雅之高橋 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tom Dagan

54th • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Kostoglou (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pádraig Ní Rúis

55th • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs KENT Lin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.10
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Roman Pinegin

61st • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.38
R9	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ania Grudnowska

67th • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Trevor Valentine (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jared Blazich (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Robert Piper

71st • 6-4-0

90%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Keito Onose (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Postle (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Zdeněk Matura

82nd • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Travis Barton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Tang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jacob Hyde

86th • 5-5-0

70%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Dennhardt (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Klein Tian (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Postle (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.20
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cristerson Chee

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Rabchenia (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Connor Bryant

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Johnstone (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.08
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Enki Dupaquier

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Hoffmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ChingHeng Lin (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.01
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Law Wen

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eugene Neo (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andy Pham (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cheuk Lun Tsang

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Max McLean (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Max McLean

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Akira NAKAJIMA (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Richard Fu

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Russell Howse (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Clement Cheng (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Adam Nieves Santiago

dropped • 3-3-0

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Armand Miguel Medina (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mat Himmelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Zaballero (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.01
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Roman Legíň

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 藤田隼輔 (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gary Manttan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Taotao Chu

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

シンヤカワグチ

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Travis Wong (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

尚規石坂

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Motoki Soezima (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Tenorio (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Michael Postle

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joel Guzman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chou Wen Hung

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Teo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 荻原雄生 (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Fu (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Crisler Chee

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jacob Kostoglou

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs yenwei Wang (Unknown)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cláudio de Salles Pupo Dias (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mikko Salmi

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clement Cheng (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jun Loong Wong (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rohan Raj (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Motoyoshi Bambara

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ricardo Rua (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Nisthal (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eugene Neo (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peng Joon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Armand Miguel Medina (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Rodrigo Canejo

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sophia Claire (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Manwaring (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

KENT Lin

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Trevor Valentine (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Manuel Hoffmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.81
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Cláudio de Salles Pupo Dias

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Kostoglou (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jack Tang

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 秀太栗原 (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jie Rui C

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jude Cornett

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.43
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Peter Buddensiek

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Tang (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

つばさ穐山

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ZongRu Wu (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

貴史石原

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maximilian Bültel

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Edmondo Mazzulli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 聡本田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nick McGrath

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 聡本田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andy Pham (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Anthony Bugoci

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Crisler Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alan Teixeira

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Alice Greer-Stokes

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Muhammad Harraz Mohd Aris (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Q

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Michael Rutkowski

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Sherry Wong

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lu-Trinh (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Takehiro Shibasaki

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mason Galvan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.67
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Tsubasa Ueda

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tuomas Kainulainen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

秀太栗原

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Naoki Endo (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Tang (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dev Gordon

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 藤田隼輔 (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Stephen Henry

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene Neo (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yukitaka Inohara (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gary Lee

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Chua (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Teoh Juwern

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuya Nakata (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

kouji hamada

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

拓弥橋本

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.