Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ralph Schlauri

39th • 7-3-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Blaž Hrastnik (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bernie L (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.14
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.50
R8	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.30
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Samuel Cho

43rd • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs yenwei Wang (Unknown)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 藤田隼輔 (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Johnny Zen (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.02
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

suguru ishimaru

65th • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.26
R8	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Doriann LASSARA

88th • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masaya Sasaki (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yoshihiko Kato (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs shogo wakui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

100:0

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (5.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03

Max Zeelie

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.28
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Henrique Gouvêa

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sinho Seol (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

MASAYA IWASAKI

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 暁柴野 (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Emerson Miller

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Tepper (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.70
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Phillip Manwaring

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs EIKI SUGAI (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rodrigo Canejo (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.