Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Kano (SAGE)

Kano

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Jaszczur

1st • 12-1-0

85%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 貴史石原 (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Darren Taing (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (9.3 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.05
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.04
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.22
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.11
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.13
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.08
R11	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R12	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.19
R13	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

William Pearlman

12th • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Johnny Zen (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.07
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Hao-Han Chuang

17th • 8-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.80
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Ryouichi Sakazaki

20th • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs シンヤカワグチ (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sam Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs zion moore (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.09
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.19
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Steven Young

21st • 8-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Kostoglou (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eugene Guevarra (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs ikuhiro mameta (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Masaki Kinoshita (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.83
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.10
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21

Jimmy Niro Demers

45th • 7-3-0

60%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Edmondo Mazzulli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.38
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.96
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21

雅貴大場

52nd • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samed Demir (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Esmond Heng (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Johnny Zen (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.12
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.14
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Yuanji Li

53rd • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Naoki Endo (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mizuki Tamura (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Chen Wei Li (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.07
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.83
R8	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.14
R9	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Katsuya Hirai

66th • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs May Hayden (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.03
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Leon Schmidtke

77th • 5-5-0

70%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kenny Tran (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 洋介小池 (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Amirruddin Sheik (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 雅之高橋 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.05
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Piotr Siewko

85th • 5-5-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 雅之高橋 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 梶田和満 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Max McLean (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Muhammad Harraz Mohd Aris

93rd • 5-5-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yoshida Yoshinobu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Robert Szura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Rath (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (5.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.99
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21

Sebastian Spicher

97th • 4-6-0

30%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Rath (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Postle (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Warre Sevens

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mizuki Tamura (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Waynne Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mauro Annetta (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

yohei ohki

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs May Hayden (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Janina Maricle (Lexi) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samed Demir (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.18
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Filipe Lima Cardoso

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Ng (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Klein Tian (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.18
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Juan Chacon

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

zion moore

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kairi Thompson (Dash) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.29
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Jacob Rabchenia

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 直樹多川 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Yoshihiko Kato

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chuang Yike (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Lim (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jin Han Toh

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ken Sawada (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mat Himmelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Blaž Hrastnik (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Ryan Youngquist

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Clement Cheng

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mikko Salmi (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Fu (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Eugene Neo

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs masaru okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

藤田隼輔

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dev Gordon (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jake mccormack

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sherry Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jason Dela Torre

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Pietro Gerletti

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Natalie Hathaway (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kurtis phelps

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 雅之高橋 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Tang (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Clong H (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jo Yana (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.