Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Columbus 2026

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

ANDREW WEBBER

53rd • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mel Falcon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Gudan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Ford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Robert Espinosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.48
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.11
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Ezra Menchen

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leah Panitz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.65
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.55
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Leah Panitz

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcellus Wiggins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ezra Menchen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Muus (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.10
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.27
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

adam ohls

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.27
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aaron Franklin

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.47
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Dayton Smallwood

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bill Fox (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Meunier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Noah Helphenstine

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Jeffrey Lang

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Purdy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Angel Hernandez (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Frady (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Maxwell Martrich

dropped • 1-6-0

29%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Walter Tomlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Theodore Maximiuk

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Brehm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.96
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.25
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Brandon Butera

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Constance (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dahm (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.50
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Matt Brehm

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Derek Purdy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Richard Hersch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Vince Biamonte

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.62
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

John Meunier

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Jorstad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Laws

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Elliott Rinke

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Ryan Shope

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.