Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
18 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
53rd • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
6.3
Surp
3.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mel Falcon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Paul Gudan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Ford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Round 8: Win vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Robert Espinosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Leah Panitz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Round 6: Win vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Win vs Marcellus Wiggins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ezra Menchen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Matt Muus (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Win vs Chandler Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bill Fox (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Meunier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Derek Purdy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Angel Hernandez (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jason Frady (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Walter Tomlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matt Brehm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Win vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Constance (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dahm (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 39:61
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Purdy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Richard Hersch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Jorstad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.