Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tony Ly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 6: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Marengo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Round 2: Win vs Richard Gapinski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Vincent (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bert Main (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Rath (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Morgan Pudim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Darick Oswalt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Meadows (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Carson Roberts (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Rich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dakota Sisk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Leah Panitz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Gudan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Anthony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Rich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 81:19
Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Scanlon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Curtis Roth (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin DiRuzza (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James Warburton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Vincent (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Kloosterman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ty Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.