Dash I/O at Calling: Columbus 2026

Dash I/O

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuki Lee Bender

11th • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jared Bugbee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.26
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

Pat Eshghy

41st • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacques Carlson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.92
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.54
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Emanuel Corps-Ortiz

48th • 7-5-0

58%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Franklin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Ross (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dahm (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.55
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.79
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Charlie Heavilin

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bill Fox (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.96
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Connor Bryant

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Ligato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Glenn Rosario II

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jerami Haws (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Charles Ligato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jared Bugbee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.21
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philip Stolze (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

John Milner

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Espinosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Garrett Brown (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David McCartney (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Hepp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.76
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Scott Rice

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Weatherholtz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Danielle Williams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Walter Tomlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ben Miller

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kai Pickett

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evelyn Thomas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Walter Tomlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Stump (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.77
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.17
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Daniel Flavin

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Pudim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Philip Stolze

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alyssa Carden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee McLeod (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.