Calling: Columbus 2026 - Valda, Seismic Impact (CC)

Valda, Seismic Impact

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Dahm

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bill Fox (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Butera (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.77
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Steven Caraher

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Goetz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Wadley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.10
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Darick Oswalt

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Montalbano IV (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alice Greer-Stokes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andre Francis (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.96
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Douglas Jones

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Goetz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 17:83

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Curtis Roth (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Josh Perry

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.