Calling: Columbus 2026 - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Naib Mobassir

30th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Simpson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Smith (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Austin Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.75
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Benjamin Hepp

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Bugbee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paden Richard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.93
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

David Wadley

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.14
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.56
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.14
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Lucas Ng

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emery Powell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Stokes (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Mick Moore

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Smith (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Morgan Pudim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Weatherholtz

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Rice (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jared Bugbee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Stokes (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Maul (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt Muus (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Charles Ligato

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenneth Shivers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Hunt (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zackary Young (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.06
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.08
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Jeffery Frahm

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Morgan Pudim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Edward Pudim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Morgan Pudim

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randall Sims (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Marengo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary Gold

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andre Francis (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Hunt (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 88:12

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.08
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Rachel Van Leeuwen

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Rice (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tim Wong

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Perry (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Shivers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wyatt Goehring

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Wadley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zack Stump (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Caleb Wangler

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joe W. (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Erik Pettis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Richard Hersch

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Brehm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Williamson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcellus Wiggins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mason Herschberg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.