Puffin, Hightail at Calling: Columbus 2026

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zackary Young

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chase Keeton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Carson Roberts (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Charles Ligato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jason Frady

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Moyer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lemont Peyton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Derek Purdy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Michael Fetter

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gapinski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.85
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.