Dorinthea Ironsong
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
60th • 6-6-0
58%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Colin Carney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Shivers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Wampler (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 80:20
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Hoover (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Vincent (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Win vs Robert Sexton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Ty Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Richard Hersch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ross Fontana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Angel Hernandez (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Davison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Rich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Frady (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Freeland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brian Laws (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.