Arakni, Marionette
38 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 12-3-0
73%
Meta
+4.3
Perf
6.8
Surp
5.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel VanDyke (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
73% (11/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 12 actual)
Surprise
6.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
16th • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
5.7
Surp
5.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs justin cress ()
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Garcia (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leah Panitz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
Round 11: Win vs Parker Sutton (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
18th • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
6.0
Surp
5.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zachery Hill (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evelyn Thomas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 9: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
22nd • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Richard Gapinski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin DiRuzza (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Robert Espinosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
31st • 8-4-0
75%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
6.4
Surp
4.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
Round 10: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
32nd • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
33rd • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dakota Sisk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lemont Peyton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lucas Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cole Torres (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
36th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.8
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Dahm (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
37th • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andre Francis (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rex Carroll (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Win vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
52nd • 7-5-0
83%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Garcia (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tony Ly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ashley Briggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 9: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs None ()
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | 50% | Win | |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
55th • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chase Keeton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Will Ross (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
57th • 6-6-0
92%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
5.8
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Will Ross (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Hepp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
92% (11/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
58th • 6-6-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
5.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Justin DiRuzza (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 6-5-0
82%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
5.1
Surp
2.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
82% (9/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Wadley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Weatherholtz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Paden Richard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Will Ross (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sean Moyer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs nicklas starland (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gabriel Marengo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 6: Loss vs Colin Carney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs James Warburton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Richard Hersch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs JT Bruhn (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arick Engberg ()
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Hoover (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Tony Ly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Marengo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs James Warburton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Josh Norton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Hoover (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Noah Helphenstine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Garrett Brown (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jared Bugbee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
71%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Weatherholtz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Hepp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Josh Norton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None ()
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | 50% | Win | |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Danielle Williams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Burns (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justyn Bernard (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Loss vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sean Moyer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Cannon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs John Montalbano IV (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Jorstad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Ford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cole Torres (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin DiRuzza (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ian Olson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cole Torres (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott Rice (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Meunier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Hudson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Angel Hernandez (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zachery Hill (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Kennedy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Philip Stolze (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Vincent (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Montalbano IV (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Smith (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bert Main (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.