Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Columbus 2026

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Majin Bae

3rd • 12-2-0

79%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

6.5

Surp

6.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lemont Peyton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashley Briggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.03
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.80
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.59
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.00
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.04
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R13	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.85
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jeremy Chen

3rd • 10-4-0

86%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.21
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.42
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Renz

10th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ty Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cole Torres (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Randall Sims (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Baker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joshua Rath (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.66
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.41
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Feng

17th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.5

Surp

5.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Brake (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Angel Hernandez (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Hepp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.85
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Jonathan Fouk

28th • 8-3-1

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Schindlbeck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.30
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R11	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.14
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Brodie Spurlock

21st • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Gudan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nicklas starland (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.11
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.48
R11	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Peter Buddensiek

26th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Hunt (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Simpson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Louis Solymos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Lorenz

35th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs nicklas starland (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bert Main (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.39
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Raj Parikh

42nd • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachary McCollough (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin DiRuzza (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mick Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.04
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.53
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Robert Espinosa

51st • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Hill (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Edward Pudim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diana Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Emery Powell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.38
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.36
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.16
R12	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Andrew Cook

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Wampler (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Ford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.54
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Illuvial Arnett

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kennedy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Morgan Pudim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Randall Sims (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anderson Soares (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dakota Sisk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcellus Wiggins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Michael Hamilton

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Laws (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lee McLeod (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.54
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Jo Burch

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Hepp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Ford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jacob Clements

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Laws (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.59
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Anderson Soares

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.14
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cam Dayton

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tony Ly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kaileb Shipman

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Martin Holík

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brayden Fetter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Samuel Tillinghast

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kellen Smallwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vince Biamonte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.95
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Bill Fox

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dahm (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Daniel Goetz

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.