Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Columbus 2026
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 9-3-0
33%
Meta
+4.5
Perf
6.6
Surp
7.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zackary Young (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Randall Sims (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Round 6: Win vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
Round 9: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs William Pearlman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.6 total deviation
Difficulty
7.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Garrett Brown (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Round 5: Win vs Gabriel VanDyke (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Feeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Stolze (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Josh Norton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Rich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jerami Haws (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Butera (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chase Keeton (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 22:78
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Brake (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jerome Libbrecht (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Walter Tomlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Win vs Alan Eichenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Simpson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Alex Herzog (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Draw |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.