Dash I/O

Dash I/O

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

3rd 11-1-0
67%
Meta
+4.6
Perf
5.3
Surp
5.1
Diff
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Akira Inuma (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 雅貴 大場 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hojin Choi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
!
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 暁 柴野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38
39th 7-5-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs HAN LONG LIU (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Tang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs デルス 山崎 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Dorinthea Ironsong
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
Kayo, Underhanded Cheat
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64
58th 6-6-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
5.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Puffin, Hightail
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Keita Arai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Prism, Awakener of Sol
!
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yuma Ishikura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs naoyuki kojima (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Valda, Seismic Impact
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None ()
dropped 6-5-0
82%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
4.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yushen Jan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sota Amitsu (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Connor Leverton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bun Ar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Fang, Dracai of Blades
!
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs hiromitsu nohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
dropped 5-5-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs ryo inoue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38
Dash I/O
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Willis Tay (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Betsy, Skin in the Game
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Kayo, Underhanded Cheat
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
dropped 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 小谷 康斗 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chen Wei Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Dash I/O
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs OH Youngjin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Arakni, Huntsman
!
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Fu Kah Deng (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
dropped 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hiroyuki Kobayashi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Naoki Yasukawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
dropped 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
Arakni, Huntsman
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yohei Mori (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 賢人 有田 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
!
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Dash I/O
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Basil Foo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
dropped 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs narihiko serikyaku (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryo Terakita (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Akira Inuma (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Dash I/O
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Byungmo Koo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
dropped 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 圭資 山村 (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 隆誠 細井 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Taine Markley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
dropped 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 佑紀 丸田 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Abel Natawardaja (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
dropped 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yuto Mori (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 渉 中原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mitsuki Sakata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kenta Miki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs ゆうひ 石丸 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
dropped 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kenta Miki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Dorinthea Ironsong
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jumpei Nasu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs EIKI SUGAI (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
dropped 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ognjen Sipraga (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
Valda, Seismic Impact
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 和佳 倉田 (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63
Puffin, Hightail
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
dropped 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Winter Fong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 暁 柴野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
!!
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Akira Inuma (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Pleiades, Superstar
!
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs atsushi tsuchiya (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
dropped 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
Dorinthea Ironsong
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuma Ishikura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yuto Mori (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs toshiaki tamura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Ho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
dropped 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
Arakni, Huntsman
!
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 雅貴 大場 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 永井 泰洋 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 渉 中原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs EITARO SHIBATA (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67
dropped 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 暁 柴野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.