Vynnset, Iron Maiden
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-5-0
40%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
5.2
Surp
2.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 尚規 石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leon Lu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 智彰 吉村 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (4/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs NANAMI OCHI (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marei Oshiro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jun Sato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroaki Sakuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs satoshi kurokawa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs treeming Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs カイ ブラック (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
14%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 尚規 石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs kouki miura (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 86:14
Round 5: Win vs Yushen Jan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Basil Foo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Keisuke Oki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Takuya iida (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 広朗 大澤 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Willis Tay (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Naoki Yasukawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs ユウキ テラダ (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.