Kassai of the Golden Sand at Calling: Hong Kong

Kassai of the Golden Sand

Kassai of the Golden Sand

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 11-0-0

73%

Meta

+5.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

6.7

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs leung hon chung (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 54:46

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Husan Bang Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lk Sing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 53:47

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs David Yau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.15
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.29
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.76
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.88
R8	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.96
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Torpong Juntree

5th • 9-1-1

73%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

5.6

Surp

5.8

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kwai Leung Wan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Jarl Vetreiði

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29

Dash I/O

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hoklong wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Cho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Draw	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.24
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.84
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.14
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

14th • 7-3-1

82%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Cho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.24
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.66
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

16th • 7-3-1

82%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 53:47

Dash I/O

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pang Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.15
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.39
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.61
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

27th • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs See Atlantis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brenna Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs YUJIE MAO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yong Yi Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Arakni, Huntsman

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kinson Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 55:45

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.25
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.79
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.65
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.79
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

46th • 4-5-2

64%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philip Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nasiruddin Nordin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Dash I/O

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs treeming Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.16
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-

dropped • 3-2-2

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Dash I/O

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikko Pena (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chun sir (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jiarui Zhang (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 53:47

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs erwin leung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Henry Lau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sze Long Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Jarl Vetreiði

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cold Cold Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 54:46

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lewis Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tabitha Boon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Connor Leverton

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Haodong Sun (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Katsu, the Wanderer

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Redc Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs HSUEH Eric (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Dash I/O

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lewis Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kwai Leung Wan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Yau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Puffin, Hightail

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xiyu Cai (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.35
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs York kwok (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs treeming Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Chu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.