Puffin, Hightail at Calling: Hong Kong

Puffin, Hightail

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Lam

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Lau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lok Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs YAT TUNG (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cold Cold Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.81
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.84

Bentley Tse

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Henry Lau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

York kwok

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taiga Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cold Cold Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wentao Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.88
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

尚規石坂

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Xiyu Cai

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yu hong wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.