Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Calling: Hong Kong
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
5.7
Surp
4.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs York kwok (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mikko Pena (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
12th • 8-3-0
64%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.4
Surp
4.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chan Lion (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Sylvère Clerempuy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Round 7: Win vs Kinson Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ma Kang shuo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
37th • 6-5-0
45%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Round 2: Win vs William Budi Surya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Richard LYU (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yong Yi Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs yu hong wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nasiruddin Nordin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 80:20
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-5-0
40%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bernard Eng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Li Bo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
40% (4/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 80:20
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dennis Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 廖 皓然 (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Win vs Sylvère Clerempuy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yong Yi Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Redc Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Heijo Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Sylvère Clerempuy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Richard LYU (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Redc Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 6: Win vs William Budi Surya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tabitha Boon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs ka chun chan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dale Low (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Redc Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Oscar S (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kinson Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Richard LYU (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hoklong wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chi san Tse (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kinson Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gary Zheng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.