Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at Calling: Hong Kong

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

RICARDO DIAZ

5th • 8-3-0

45%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nasiruddin Nordin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

45% (5/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.48
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.90
R10	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jiarui Zhang

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chong Chi fu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chung Ho Kong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs leung hon chung (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elton Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs William Budi Surya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.56
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Chan Lion

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 90:10

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pang Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.