Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Calling: Hong Kong

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

3rd • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HSUEH Eric (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.05
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.38
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.44
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.63
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Brodie Spurlock

5th • 9-2-0

73%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.8

Surp

5.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.10
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.57
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.11
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.55
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andre Ryan See

11th • 8-2-1

73%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jian Botor (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 廖皓然 (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs FUNG CC (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.06
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.11
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.36
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Draw	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.36
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

PH Chung

29th • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ian Chan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.33
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.44
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R9	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jammy Cheng

30th • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chun sir (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Man Kit (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pang Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.04
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.12
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.94
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Justin Cu

32nd • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lk Sing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brenna Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.41
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.49
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Tobias Schmiedeberg

dropped • 4-3-2

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henry Fan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Yong Yi Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Draw	✗	0.21	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Dale Low

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Man Kit (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Colin Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs erwin leung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

KAZUMA SUZUKI

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Man Kit (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dale Low (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Paul van Gijssel

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wan Tenjin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.38
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.55

Husan Bang Chang

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ka chun chan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lok Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs YUJIE MAO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.93
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Richard LYU

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jian Botor (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Li Bo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Henry Fan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

William Budi Surya

dropped • 0-6-1

100%

Meta

-4.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Li Bo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hoklong wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chi san Tse (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jiarui Zhang (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-4.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Draw	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Sylvère Clerempuy

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jian Botor (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pang Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Edric Ramos

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wentao Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.30
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Philip Wong

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wan Tenjin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kinson Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs yu hong wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Yang-Chia Chang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colin Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jackie wong

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Zijin Yan

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brenna Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.