Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
26th • 7-4-0
64%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hoklong wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs yu hong wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
Round 3: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs treeming Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
Round 8: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 9: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 10: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 11: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Elton Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 5: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dale Low (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Colin Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Louis Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
Round 2: Loss vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.