Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 7-4-0
82%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Connor Leverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42
Round 6: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
82% (9/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
24th • 7-4-0
55%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs erwin leung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Redc Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs treeming Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Edric Ramos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Man Kit (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs YUJIE MAO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nasiruddin Nordin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Elvis Ho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs FUNG CC (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lane Thomason (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs yu hong wang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gary Zheng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Wentao Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chih Wei Huang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brenna Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs MICKEY LOI (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 廖 皓然 (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 廖 皓然 (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Elton Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Haotian Dong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Win vs 廖 皓然 (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brenna Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Henry Fan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Heijo Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.