Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Hong Kong

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wong Hennessy

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jiabin Chen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Henry Lau

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Lam (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elton Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs See Atlantis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Lewis Chan

dropped • 1-5-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chan Lion (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 10:90

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ka chun chan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Elton Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chih Wei Huang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.20
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.