Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Bologna 2025
Arakni, Marionette
18 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 9-3-0
42%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michał Biereg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Francesco Motta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 5: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Marko Leben (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
23rd • 9-3-0
58%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
5.9
Surp
5.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jari Vincke (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lachlan Maddaford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Daniel Correas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
39th • 8-4-0
42%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
6.0
Surp
4.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Morris Prem (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Bota Claudiu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Round 10: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
58th • 7-4-1
50%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
6.3
Surp
4.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Victor Sanchez (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Márton Kovács (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs Gianluigi Lia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Draw |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-1
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Mauro Annetta (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Draw |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vlad Margarit (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Loss vs Ivaylo Ivanov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Goran Lovric (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Iacopo Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alessandro Segradin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vedran Djuricic (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs András Kovács (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Win vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marek Luczak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Bettoli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Zugna (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrea Albani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Massimiliano Messina (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Josef Doležal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Round 7: Win vs Giuseppe Cervone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Rainaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Florian Traversaz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-1
71%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Chițu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Draw |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Kitsos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marek Luczak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
80%
Meta
-3.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kacper Mocek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marek Fila (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Sotiris Konstantelos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Iacopo Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Davide Cimmino (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marko Leben (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Duccio Capanni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.