Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Bologna 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
27th • 8-4-0
42%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.9
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wojciech Arendt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs George Melissakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Plamen Kutinchev (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
Round 7: Win vs Giacomo Mosca (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Roy Sammour (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
Round 10: Win vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Žan Baumgartner (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
Round 5: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Crame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arianna Rinaldi (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theofilos Papadopoulos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Li (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Ziegler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Iason Kouvakas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Duccio Capanni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
Round 3: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcin Chorzepa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edoardo Galli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.