Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 9-3-0
50%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.1
Surp
6.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Zanella (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Žan Baumgartner (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jan Kučera (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Round 8: Win vs George Jones (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
6.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Win |
| R9 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
57th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gianluca Razza (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Virginia Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Pizzetti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Giuseppe Cervone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
Round 9: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Antonio Kutter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michał Biereg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Massimo D'Amato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Igor Makarev (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Zugna (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lewis Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Ceschin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maniša Njegomir (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alex Kondov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 7: Loss vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roy Sammour (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None ()
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Gómez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Round 5: Win vs David Luckey (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Žan Baumgartner (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Edoardo Galli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Francesco Zampieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.