Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Bologna 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Niedzielec

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Flavio Caoduro (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lachlan Maddaford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriele Panichi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Gaia Bormida

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Márton Kovács (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simone Sieli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Flavio Dollani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michał Rzepczyński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Bettoli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Christian Hauck

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriele Panichi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Victor Sanchez (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.67
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Ceschin

dropped • 1-4-1

67%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stephen Berlyant (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Brian Fusciani

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Sanchez (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gabriele Giacomelli (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.33
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.