Ira, Scarlet Revenger
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None ()
Round 2: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Ziegler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nikos Evgenidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matteo Lista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Albani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michał Zalejski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Theofrastos Matakoulias (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Adrián Marín (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Andrea Ceschin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Draw |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Guillermo Revilla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 33:67
Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.