Puffin, Hightail at Calling: Bologna 2025
Puffin, Hightail
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
64th • 6-6-0
17%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
5.7
Surp
2.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Win vs Lachlan Maddaford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44
10:90
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
17% (2/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 23:77
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
10:90
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-1
29%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gabriele Giacomelli (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Davide Ierardi (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41
Round 5: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Massimiliano Messina (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Duccio Capanni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Draw |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 36:64
Round 3: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Ziegler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Iacopo Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs None ()
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-3.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christos Kontzoglou (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gianluca Razza (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Enrico Collini (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 86:14
Round 5: Loss vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Massimiliano Messina (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Enrico Collini (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 86:14
Round 4: Loss vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michele Maietta (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Round 4: Win vs Guillermo Revilla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Piero Carini (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Loss vs Panagiotis Pavlou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jari Vincke (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.