Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Bologna 2025
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-3-1
29%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arianna Rinaldi (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michał Rzepczyński (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Plamen Kutinchev (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Flavio Dollani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nikos Tavoulareas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.