Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Calling: Bologna 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simone Pagani

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Donoso (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edoardo La Rosa (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gabriele Giacomelli (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.29
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.24
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tomasz Żelazko

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wojciech Arendt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Tassini (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Davide Ierardi

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andreas Capsalis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriele Panichi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 11:89

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.