Calling: Bologna 2025 - Marlynn, Treasure Hunter (CC)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simone Pagani

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Donoso (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edoardo La Rosa (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gabriele Giacomelli (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.15
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Tomasz Żelazko

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wojciech Arendt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Tassini (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Ceschin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.72
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.62
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Davide Ierardi

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andreas Capsalis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriele Panichi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.