Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Bologna 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 9-4-0
46%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
6.9
Surp
4.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theofrastos Matakoulias (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Win vs George Jones (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
Round 7: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
Round 9: Win vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Round 11: Win vs Marko Leben (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 12: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Marko Leben (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
5th • 9-4-0
69%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Žan Baumgartner (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Li (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marko Leben (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Round 6: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 9: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
69% (9/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
45th • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.8
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Piero Carini (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73
Round 4: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Roy Sammour (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Diego Giacca (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Antonio Kutter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rob Catton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcel Harz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Virginia Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexandros Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Li (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Round 2: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Round 5: Loss vs Lachlan Maddaford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Romain TRAVERSAZ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Luckey (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco Nogarole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Round 5: Win vs Gaia Bormida (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Francesco Zampieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Round 5: Win vs Romain TRAVERSAZ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.