Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened Munich

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Hempelmann

5th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joscha Amann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Däther (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.49
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Philipp Kuschel

5th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Gigler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Bausch (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Koch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nils Herrmann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Nils Hauck

21st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Davorin Pokorn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Schramm (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Martin Baur (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.99
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Sebastian Valls Reinecke

22nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristof Andrić (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bastian Brandstetter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Manuel Hoffmann

35th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maik Dieterle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kacper Mocek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hüseyin Kılık (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Davorin Pokorn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marius Klezok (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Thomas Steinle

36th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Kempter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marius Reinhardt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Robin Wagner

39th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Kempter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kai Martin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Bausch (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bastian Brandstetter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Eisenbart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.17
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Andreas Kaiser

42nd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philipp Hinrichsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Eisenbart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dominik Däther (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Elmar Bruckmann

64th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marko Butorovych (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kacper Mocek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrejs Ruseckis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.80
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Mira Kubiczak

75th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Moritz Wendl (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marius Reinhardt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nils Herrmann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.19
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elmar Bruckmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Schödel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.06
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andreas Türke

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Bauer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florian Kink (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.36
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Patrick Schuster

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Eisenbart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bastian Brandstetter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Haneke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Peter Bauer

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andreas Türke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Ebner (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.