Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened Munich 2025
Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Hügel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kamil Kirstein (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nils Hauck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
31st • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marius Reinhardt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Justin Steinhauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Davorin Pokorn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
52nd • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eleonora Turowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marius Reinhardt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Florian Kink (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ramon Staudt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul Beese (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marco Wilzius (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Baur (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.