Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened Munich 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

61st • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Kreutz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrejs Ruseckis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Johann Schwarze (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Justin Steinhauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.30
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

80th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kai Martin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Katsu, the Wanderer

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Baur (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mira Kubiczak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcus Leichtenberger (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Win	✗	0.86	1.05
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.72

Marcus Leichtenberger

88th • 0-8-0

62%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Steinhauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hüseyin Kılık (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Lancini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Puffin, Hightail

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antonia Reichl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Martin Ebner (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Preusch (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

gabriel głowicki

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Arakni, Marionette

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Wagner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Müller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Schuster (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Gigler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

dropped • 0-3-1

25%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Andreas Reling (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hügel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Draw	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yannick Kohlmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Puffin, Hightail

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angelos Emmanouil (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.