Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
61st • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Stefan Kreutz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrejs Ruseckis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Johann Schwarze (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Justin Steinhauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
80th • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kai Martin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Round 2: Loss vs Martin Baur (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mira Kubiczak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marcus Leichtenberger (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
88th • 0-8-0
38%
Meta
-3.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Steinhauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hüseyin Kılık (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Lancini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Antonia Reichl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Martin Ebner (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Preusch (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simon Wagner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Müller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Schuster (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Gigler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Andreas Reling (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hügel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Michael Rehberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Draw |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yannick Kohlmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Angelos Emmanouil (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.