Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened Munich 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nils Hauck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
48th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Schuster (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kacper Mocek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Kaiser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
49th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marcus Leichtenberger (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Hoffmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marius Klezok (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
Round 8: Loss vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
59th • 4-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nils Hauck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Loss vs Aleks Richter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vanessa Jaud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
90:10
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rico Angermeier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hügel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 90% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.