Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Boyhan

1st • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

7.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kit Valentine (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Calf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.39
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.66
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.38

Isaac Murray

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ash Parkhouse-Pemberton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.56
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.65
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jack Raven

10th • 6-0-0

67%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

7.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Crame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

7.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.30
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.29
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.55

James Micklewright

23rd • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

7.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Burlace (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.11
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.22
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.86

Benjamin Westmore

17th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tom Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.11
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	3.26

Jacob Clements

19th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

7.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.29
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.59

Christopher Chalk

41st • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Stefanos Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.61

Alfie Thomasson

42nd • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leila Catton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.11
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Win	✗	0.75	4.00

Thomas Harle

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Andrew Rayner

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Tripp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Rob Catton

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Keown (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Aidan Keown

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ash Parkhouse-Pemberton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kane Wilson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

David Calf

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ash Parkhouse-Pemberton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

George Rodger

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Lubos Vanicek

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Thomas Farrow

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emel Walsh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Paul Goodchild

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Seb Ball (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Draw	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Benjamin Troth

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.