Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Braben

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kane Wilson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Debling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Damon Elgie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.13
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.01
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.31
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.84
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Jason Rolfe

9th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

4.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Debling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.30
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.62

Kate Dunstone

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Henry Burlace (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R10	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.58

Scott "HowlingMines" Mines

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jess Swandale (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Emel Walsh

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Keys (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Collins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.