Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at National Championship

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Price

22nd • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Clark (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Winning (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R10	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.28
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.53
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.42

Daniel Mckinlay

14th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Walley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alex Chițu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.18
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.30
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Liam Holden

13th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.40
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.49
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.92
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Zak Murray

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Margetson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Curry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jess Swandale (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Paul Farnell

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Clark (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Robert Catling

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Curry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hon-man Yau (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ryan Debling

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Scott Morris

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anya North (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tyhrone Bennett

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Tom Barnaby-Pass

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Micklewright (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Fisher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.