National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim McCarthy

2nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.6

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Catling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.65
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.66
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.23
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.34
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Matthew Whewell

36th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anya North (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs anna xia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs George Keys (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Winning (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.82
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.08
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.37

Ed Kennan

28th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Micklewright (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.14
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Ben Lux

30th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Gordon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stefanos Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.71
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Pontus Angerfors

dropped • 4-1-0

60%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Declan Patrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Seb Lee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.67

Connor O'Sullivan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Harrison Shore (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Dyson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.09
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.30
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Kiran Lee

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Crame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Damon Elgie

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Paul A Wright

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhys Francis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Emlyn Ingram

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hon-man Yau (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Joseph Walley

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

Deck

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

James Thourgood

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Mann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.