Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

George Keys

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emel Walsh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Curry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.32
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Finlay Shepherd

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kyle Mullings

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leila Catton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anya North (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.