Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anton Cid Mejias

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Burlace (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.36
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Emad Kashy

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.45
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Ward

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Micklewright (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Thomas Davis

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Keys (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Tom Hazell

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Adam Harbinson

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.