National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jas Tin Lim

15th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kane Wilson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.78

Seb Ball

44th • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Paul Goodchild (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Carr (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Scupham (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Steve Margetson

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.29

Jude Fisher

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seb Lee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.29

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.